Given most of this is old news, I would much prefer to hear Matt and Walter discuss this Monday afternoon (or Sunday for a special show). And since I have been following various good sources all day, even today's events are old news. It would have also been interesting to have heard what they had to say on Thursday (released Friday morning) given that this was coming bigger than shit. Given that, it is a useful timeline, but nothing unique. This news is available elsewhere for those interested (just like the overabundance of Epstein info). What we can't get elsewhere is ATW or Matt's writing, all of which included obvious "takes." Which is why he is/was a great writer.
It is absurd to ignore suitcases of cash to iran, probably the most disgraceful act in American history since the democrat party rebellion of 1861 (until biden appeared).
I agree with the goals of the administration here, but I don't see even a semi-viable path to obtain those goals without putting boots on the ground. You can't just pulverize everybody and expect democracy from the rubble.
Everybody's gloating like the battle's already over and now the Iranian people can take over, but that's what they said after the Saddam statues came down, too.
And it is not like the US has been good at regime change. So for us to engage in selecting new leaders will likley add to many years of unstability - not something we want.
It won't be easy and nothing is guaranteed, but it's a great start. The Iranian people who might have accepted more of the same before are angry now, give them some training and I think they'll do the rest. Chaos is a danger, and there's no ready made replacement government ready to step in.
Well if that's going to happen first we have to....eliminate everybody who's currently running the country, right? They aren't just going to hand over the government to an American puppet.
It's real life, not a TV comic. Iranians have the will, numbers and motivation to take back their country. They'll probably need help via training on how to flush out and hunt IRGC rather than getting massacred again, and also with continuing basic government functions.
There's no need for them to have a "Democracy", which would probably be a disaster itself. They may want, say, a Constitutional Republic or a Parliamentary Monarchy (meaning the monarch doesn't have day-to-day governing powers). Making it into one giant mob with Iran's ethnic factions fighting each other wouldn't be pretty. No, it's not our job to pick a system for them. That was the means Dubbya used to hand Iraq to the Iran-aligned Shia.
It's far from hopeless, in fact the prospects are good. Hopeless would be to do another round of Lose and Spend Theater like the GWB and Obama's 3 terms did.
Okay Trump as proven once again. Don't F with me. I will kill you if you do. But what do they think is going to happen in Iran now? Iran will just decide to stand down and sue for peace? Of will they become enraged and strike out with even more desperation and kill thousands with a lucky strike on something.. Or maybe they hit one of the Aircraft carries with a hypersonic missile causing tremendous damage or loss of life. There is one thing we have learned since the Iraq and Afghanistan mistakes is that the Folks in the government do not have a plan for day 2. Especially if we take some real losses.
Sources I have read indicate that there are IC (and likely special ops) assets in Iran coordinating with Iranians now to assist in establishing a new government. It will certainly not be easy. It is heartening to see the many celebrations in Iran (and of Iranian exiles) worldwide. Particularly great to see some courageous Iranian women ditching the horrid hijabs and dancing, especially recalling the young woman who protested in January by burning a pic of Khamenei with her cigarette.
I was quite young, but aware of the 1979 hostage crisis.
Also interesting is the solidarity among our other ME allies against Iran. Supposedly MBS was one of the strongest advocates for the strikes, calling Pres. Trump repeatedly to encourage him to attack.
Never underestimate what courage and planning can achieve. Israel clearly has a wide spy network in Iran; God willing the Iranian people can meld into a sustainable, non radical government.
This is a coda, imho, to a terrible period of settling for decline and feckless diplomacy.
I don't subscribe to the nation building scenario. And that is why there won't be boots on the ground. I offer that neutralizing the military threat both actual and potential is the objective. If regime change happens all the better. Upon the destruction of Iran's military infrastructure comprehensively we will simply step back.
It's a broad term, isn't it. Difference between encouraging a NON RADICAL TERRORIST regime and having thousands of our soldiers billeted there for many years.
There are a lot of things I don’t “like”, but sometimes assessing reality requires one to do those things to achieved a better outcome.
I am willing to wait and see. Of course the hardened terrorist types will scheme and try to gain/regain power. However, 40 of the worst taken out today is what I”d call a good start.
That's the only way it could even POSSIBLY "work" the way we want it to -- supposedly we're just gonna trot out the son of the Shah and hope Iranians forgot who he was.
I am not convinced this is in our interest. Iranian leaders are not good, but join the club of bad leaders around the globe. Change was happening in Iran, but of course not at the pace the US sought. I am sure Trump will bask for many weeks on his so called victory. But history has taught us over and over again that bombs are not a long term solution. Unfortunately it will take several months to realize this. And for this no agreement with Israel for the Palestinians. And of course we are not bombing Israel as they continue their campaign to take all the Palestinian land. The Middle East should be wary of their plans.
So you're wrong already. Khomeini is dead as is much if the leadership, military targets were effectively hit and the Palestinians blew it due to their years if intransigence. We Israelis are no longer willing to take any risks with them after Oct 7. It's not like they haven't said they'll try to kill us all again, they have. There are big changes here in the ME to a large extent due to the support of President Trump.
Unless you've been in contact with the President you are not capable of knowing what his long range strategic plan is. More than likely several months from now the USA will have stepped back and let the Saudi's and Israel manage the containment of a crippled Iran. An Iran no longer possessing the capital to rebuild what they think needs rebuilding and support their proxies. Who I'm sure are phase two for Israel.
For more ‘recent’ start date, I’d point to 10/7/23. The aftermath was Israel literally neutralizing both Hezbollah & Hamas. These were Iran’s insurance policies. Notice how both haven’t lobbed one rocket or missile since start of this new round of fighting.
That’s because Israel & USA wouldn’t have initiated any direct attack on Iran unless the proxies were neutered first.
Note that there is no attack against the Artesh, and only the Revolutionary Guard and its leadership. Whenever the bombs stop, the ‘hope’ is that the less ideological branch of the Iranian military will keep order for whatever might be the next regime.
Now that the die is cast, the US/Israel need to delete the ‘next man up’ for a few rounds. Such as taking out whoever is named the next Supreme Leader. The Islamic State needs to be decimated, and that’s going to likely require Seals & Special Forces.
The other thinking is that Trump is a deal-maker. So, he may not take this to the ‘end’ it now requires, if you really want to squash Tehran’s nuke ambitions for the next 100 years. He may cut a deal w/ the new Ayatollah. This would be a mistake
I did not vote for this. And I’m no fan of forever wars. But here we are.
No, I’m a 3x Trump voter. He campaigned on keeping us out of wars. I realize that’s not always possible. I’m not a big fan of war (I’m a veteran and have seen the damage done)
I'm not a fan of war either but the bombs are falling on me and my friends and neighbors lost loved ones on Oct 7 after 18 years of rockets out of Gaza. We Israelis have lost sympathy for people who just want to kill us.
I’d rather Israel have handled this on its own. I’m in the US and bombs not falling on me. It’s Israel’s fight. USA is involved because of the oil, who controls it and who gets it. This is a check against China move. As was Venezuela. As is Nigeria. Israel has been destabilizing Arab countries for the past 25 years. Any country that supported a 2-state solution got the Israeli stink eye. I understand why the Israeli ‘Clean Break’ strategy from past. Because appeasement from 1948 to 1990’s wasn’t working. It’s just that Israel change in strategy brought the USA along with it, and I resent the spilling of our blood and treasure.
Islam has been taking US hostages since the 1790s. The US Marines were formed specifically to end enslavement of US commercial sailors by the Caliphate.
Iran started a war with us 47 years ago and has never stopped.
Their animating cry is Death To America, Death to Israel. The beards think in thousand year chunks not the next election cycle, they have a better Manhattan Project than our original Manhattan project and they have ICBM technology sharing with North Korea.
Why it took 47 years for the US to do anything effective about this is not at all obvious. As it turns out, President 47 is the key.
“Now that the die is cast, the US/Israel need to delete the ‘next man up’ for a few rounds. Such as taking out whoever is named the next Supreme Leader. The Islamic State needs to be decimated, and that’s going to likely require Seals & Special Forces.”
iran did that very thing when they kidnapped hundreds of americans. it’s frankly disgusting that it took this long to raise the whirlwinds. Easily Reagan’s greatest failure (although it can be argued that his restraint from action brought them home).
Kind of ironic that the Regime animated by a belief that war would summon the 12th Imam which in turn would herald the end of the world was cracked by a 12-day war. Even more that a regime dedicated to eternal war against the Infidel is falling right at Biblical holiday which commemorates an evil ruler of Persia being killed and replaced by a benevolent one.
The Persian (Iranian) captivity under the Ayatollahs lasted 47 years. The Babylonian Captivity which sent the Israelites to Persia lasted 47 years. And of course the essential leader key to making this happen is the 47th President.
I'm the furthest thing from a Bible-thumper but I get a sense of awe from this event. I suspect this is a greater chapter in history than we understand in this moment.
Given most of this is old news, I would much prefer to hear Matt and Walter discuss this Monday afternoon (or Sunday for a special show). And since I have been following various good sources all day, even today's events are old news. It would have also been interesting to have heard what they had to say on Thursday (released Friday morning) given that this was coming bigger than shit. Given that, it is a useful timeline, but nothing unique. This news is available elsewhere for those interested (just like the overabundance of Epstein info). What we can't get elsewhere is ATW or Matt's writing, all of which included obvious "takes." Which is why he is/was a great writer.
I feel the same, am selective about whose take on events I'm interested in giving my time to reading.
I agree. Still sad this won't happen.
It is absurd to ignore suitcases of cash to iran, probably the most disgraceful act in American history since the democrat party rebellion of 1861 (until biden appeared).
I agree with the goals of the administration here, but I don't see even a semi-viable path to obtain those goals without putting boots on the ground. You can't just pulverize everybody and expect democracy from the rubble.
Everybody's gloating like the battle's already over and now the Iranian people can take over, but that's what they said after the Saddam statues came down, too.
And it is not like the US has been good at regime change. So for us to engage in selecting new leaders will likley add to many years of unstability - not something we want.
We don't even have a good record IN IRAN!
It won't be easy and nothing is guaranteed, but it's a great start. The Iranian people who might have accepted more of the same before are angry now, give them some training and I think they'll do the rest. Chaos is a danger, and there's no ready made replacement government ready to step in.
Well if that's going to happen first we have to....eliminate everybody who's currently running the country, right? They aren't just going to hand over the government to an American puppet.
The whole thing reminds me of a South Park skit
1) Bomb Iran
2) ???????
3) Stable Democracy
It's real life, not a TV comic. Iranians have the will, numbers and motivation to take back their country. They'll probably need help via training on how to flush out and hunt IRGC rather than getting massacred again, and also with continuing basic government functions.
There's no need for them to have a "Democracy", which would probably be a disaster itself. They may want, say, a Constitutional Republic or a Parliamentary Monarchy (meaning the monarch doesn't have day-to-day governing powers). Making it into one giant mob with Iran's ethnic factions fighting each other wouldn't be pretty. No, it's not our job to pick a system for them. That was the means Dubbya used to hand Iraq to the Iran-aligned Shia.
It's far from hopeless, in fact the prospects are good. Hopeless would be to do another round of Lose and Spend Theater like the GWB and Obama's 3 terms did.
Yeah, it's real life -- so how do we expect the people, armed with their limp dicks, to overthrow the government?
And once they do, how do we know they'll chose the "right" leaders?
These are basic questions that nobody can seem to answer.
I think that was the real goal... chaos, unfortunately.
Never get involved in a land war in Asia.
They didn't listen to the POTUS. If they did, it appears they didn't take him seriously.
Okay Trump as proven once again. Don't F with me. I will kill you if you do. But what do they think is going to happen in Iran now? Iran will just decide to stand down and sue for peace? Of will they become enraged and strike out with even more desperation and kill thousands with a lucky strike on something.. Or maybe they hit one of the Aircraft carries with a hypersonic missile causing tremendous damage or loss of life. There is one thing we have learned since the Iraq and Afghanistan mistakes is that the Folks in the government do not have a plan for day 2. Especially if we take some real losses.
Apparently the Iranian people are just supposed to "rise up" and "take control" of their country.
I think the people currently running the country will have a slight problem with that -- so then what?
Sources I have read indicate that there are IC (and likely special ops) assets in Iran coordinating with Iranians now to assist in establishing a new government. It will certainly not be easy. It is heartening to see the many celebrations in Iran (and of Iranian exiles) worldwide. Particularly great to see some courageous Iranian women ditching the horrid hijabs and dancing, especially recalling the young woman who protested in January by burning a pic of Khamenei with her cigarette.
I was quite young, but aware of the 1979 hostage crisis.
Also interesting is the solidarity among our other ME allies against Iran. Supposedly MBS was one of the strongest advocates for the strikes, calling Pres. Trump repeatedly to encourage him to attack.
Never underestimate what courage and planning can achieve. Israel clearly has a wide spy network in Iran; God willing the Iranian people can meld into a sustainable, non radical government.
This is a coda, imho, to a terrible period of settling for decline and feckless diplomacy.
We call that nation-building, the very thing that everybody in the administration says isn't going to happen in Iran.
Nation building by Iranians sounds pretty good, and we can assist. Nation building by Paul Bremer with assistance from Halliburton, not so much.
I don't subscribe to the nation building scenario. And that is why there won't be boots on the ground. I offer that neutralizing the military threat both actual and potential is the objective. If regime change happens all the better. Upon the destruction of Iran's military infrastructure comprehensively we will simply step back.
So if we don't have boots on the ground, how do we achieve the outcome we want?
"Bomb the shit out of them and hope for the best" is possibly a WORSE strategy than nation building.
Did you even read what I said?
yes exactly my thought. Did someone not think through that some Colonel no one knows might see this has a opportunity to make a name for himself.
And there's little doubt Iran had detailed plans for this exact scenario. People are already tapped to fill empty spots in the government.
It's a broad term, isn't it. Difference between encouraging a NON RADICAL TERRORIST regime and having thousands of our soldiers billeted there for many years.
There are a lot of things I don’t “like”, but sometimes assessing reality requires one to do those things to achieved a better outcome.
But those guys were already in the terrorist organizations....we expect them to just give up their terrorism and hand over the keys?
This does not seem likely, knowing the history of the region.
I am willing to wait and see. Of course the hardened terrorist types will scheme and try to gain/regain power. However, 40 of the worst taken out today is what I”d call a good start.
one would think the Americans have a few suggestions
That's the only way it could even POSSIBLY "work" the way we want it to -- supposedly we're just gonna trot out the son of the Shah and hope Iranians forgot who he was.
Different time, different circumstances. Not comparable in my opinion.
I am not convinced this is in our interest. Iranian leaders are not good, but join the club of bad leaders around the globe. Change was happening in Iran, but of course not at the pace the US sought. I am sure Trump will bask for many weeks on his so called victory. But history has taught us over and over again that bombs are not a long term solution. Unfortunately it will take several months to realize this. And for this no agreement with Israel for the Palestinians. And of course we are not bombing Israel as they continue their campaign to take all the Palestinian land. The Middle East should be wary of their plans.
So you're wrong already. Khomeini is dead as is much if the leadership, military targets were effectively hit and the Palestinians blew it due to their years if intransigence. We Israelis are no longer willing to take any risks with them after Oct 7. It's not like they haven't said they'll try to kill us all again, they have. There are big changes here in the ME to a large extent due to the support of President Trump.
Unless you've been in contact with the President you are not capable of knowing what his long range strategic plan is. More than likely several months from now the USA will have stepped back and let the Saudi's and Israel manage the containment of a crippled Iran. An Iran no longer possessing the capital to rebuild what they think needs rebuilding and support their proxies. Who I'm sure are phase two for Israel.
Great timeline, thanks for this!
For more ‘recent’ start date, I’d point to 10/7/23. The aftermath was Israel literally neutralizing both Hezbollah & Hamas. These were Iran’s insurance policies. Notice how both haven’t lobbed one rocket or missile since start of this new round of fighting.
That’s because Israel & USA wouldn’t have initiated any direct attack on Iran unless the proxies were neutered first.
Note that there is no attack against the Artesh, and only the Revolutionary Guard and its leadership. Whenever the bombs stop, the ‘hope’ is that the less ideological branch of the Iranian military will keep order for whatever might be the next regime.
Now that the die is cast, the US/Israel need to delete the ‘next man up’ for a few rounds. Such as taking out whoever is named the next Supreme Leader. The Islamic State needs to be decimated, and that’s going to likely require Seals & Special Forces.
The other thinking is that Trump is a deal-maker. So, he may not take this to the ‘end’ it now requires, if you really want to squash Tehran’s nuke ambitions for the next 100 years. He may cut a deal w/ the new Ayatollah. This would be a mistake
I did not vote for this. And I’m no fan of forever wars. But here we are.
The report is 40 members of leadership dead, including Khamenei’s family, fwiw.
You voted for Harris?
No, I’m a 3x Trump voter. He campaigned on keeping us out of wars. I realize that’s not always possible. I’m not a big fan of war (I’m a veteran and have seen the damage done)
I'm not a fan of war either but the bombs are falling on me and my friends and neighbors lost loved ones on Oct 7 after 18 years of rockets out of Gaza. We Israelis have lost sympathy for people who just want to kill us.
I’d rather Israel have handled this on its own. I’m in the US and bombs not falling on me. It’s Israel’s fight. USA is involved because of the oil, who controls it and who gets it. This is a check against China move. As was Venezuela. As is Nigeria. Israel has been destabilizing Arab countries for the past 25 years. Any country that supported a 2-state solution got the Israeli stink eye. I understand why the Israeli ‘Clean Break’ strategy from past. Because appeasement from 1948 to 1990’s wasn’t working. It’s just that Israel change in strategy brought the USA along with it, and I resent the spilling of our blood and treasure.
What fantasy world do you live in? The Arabs are constantly attacking us and have also killed many Americans. You need to learn some history.
I hear you. I support FIDF but my feeling is the USA will set the table but the rooting out part is up to you.
This SNL cold opening this evening is pretty funny.
https://youtu.be/cInVSNM4bsU?si=0fUHD0alM6pacPpX
Islam has been taking US hostages since the 1790s. The US Marines were formed specifically to end enslavement of US commercial sailors by the Caliphate.
Holy shit dude. The Cranberries release a great song in 1994 called Zombie. Are you perhaps who Dolores was singing about?
Iran started a war with us 47 years ago and has never stopped.
Their animating cry is Death To America, Death to Israel. The beards think in thousand year chunks not the next election cycle, they have a better Manhattan Project than our original Manhattan project and they have ICBM technology sharing with North Korea.
Why it took 47 years for the US to do anything effective about this is not at all obvious. As it turns out, President 47 is the key.
Did you even read my post?
Here you go, again:
“Now that the die is cast, the US/Israel need to delete the ‘next man up’ for a few rounds. Such as taking out whoever is named the next Supreme Leader. The Islamic State needs to be decimated, and that’s going to likely require Seals & Special Forces.”
Sow the wind...
iran did that very thing when they kidnapped hundreds of americans. it’s frankly disgusting that it took this long to raise the whirlwinds. Easily Reagan’s greatest failure (although it can be argued that his restraint from action brought them home).
The unprovoked attack on our Marines in Lebanon was their work. It went unanswered for decades. The answer arrived.
No, this kind of factual timeline reporting is very valuable. Good work.
This is exactly what is unbiased reportage! This is why I subscribe.
Kind of ironic that the Regime animated by a belief that war would summon the 12th Imam which in turn would herald the end of the world was cracked by a 12-day war. Even more that a regime dedicated to eternal war against the Infidel is falling right at Biblical holiday which commemorates an evil ruler of Persia being killed and replaced by a benevolent one.
The Persian (Iranian) captivity under the Ayatollahs lasted 47 years. The Babylonian Captivity which sent the Israelites to Persia lasted 47 years. And of course the essential leader key to making this happen is the 47th President.
I'm the furthest thing from a Bible-thumper but I get a sense of awe from this event. I suspect this is a greater chapter in history than we understand in this moment.
Much respect for your in depth and fascinating comments!
How soon we forgot America First was a Nazi Front in 1940 and it is a Nazi Front still.
https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/behold-america-american-dream-slogan-book-sarah-churchwell-180970311/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BzLOTHciIKI&list=RDBzLOTHciIKI&start_radio=1
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