Election Update 6: The Puckering

Democrats "pretty nervous," as the blue wall is fast becoming an Alamo

Start with the hard news. California is called for Harris. Adam Schiff, on the short list of America’s worst humans, will serve as a U.S. Senator. Donald Trump’s most recent win is in Idaho, but he’s ahead in the popular vote and no matter what you might be hearing about Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, the squeeze is on. The New York Times may go down as the first mainstream outlet to say it out loud, with analyst Nate Cohn at about 10:45 p.m. writing:

For the first time tonight, we consider Trump likely to win the presidency. He has an advantage in each of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. To win, Harris would need to sweep all three. There is still a lot of vote left, but in the voting so far, Trump is narrowly but discernibly ahead.

Brian Williams on Amazon is trying to smash the all-time record for Dad jokes. He’s free-associating, having a grand old time piloting a big show again, talking football with everyone, especially the female guests. “The state of Kansas. Remember how I said, we’re all Dorothy tonight. Well, Dorothy’s spoken. Dorothy just gave a red check to, uh, Donald Trump… I’ll say this about Detroit, a city I love, I’m going to a Lions game in December, Steve, and see Dan Campbell’s work up close…” Later, more somber: “The Democratic Party may have taken some things for granted. You’ve gotta remember how to speak American…”

MSNBC is a morgue. It’s still early, but if these results come close to holding, a lot of careers are going to end. News directors and party officials alike are going to wonder exactly what it wins them to have on-air spokespeople calling all of Florida an “extreme right-wing fascist state,” as Joy Reid just did. An election is underway, but there’s also a referendum on the intellectual mainstream, and that could be more decisive than the vote.

But again, it’s still early. Not hard to remember what this time of night seemed to portend in 2020. But the AP just called North Carolina for Trump, Trump is reportedly showing a massive improvement with black men in Pennsylvania, and Williams just cut the jokes long enough to ask, “It’s time to ask… what path remains for Kamala Harris?” He added: “The blue wall is buckling right now.” For what it’s worth, Jen O’Malley Dillon also just gave a statement to MSNBC saying the campaign “feels good” about where it is, and that it’s waiting for sizable numbers of votes to come in the blue wall states.

I suspect the next update will be determinative, one way or the other.