As some of my readers know, the NFL draft is a lifelong obsession. In fact, I’ve been pursuing political journalism for decades as a clever misdirection ploy, whose real purpose is to get Jacksonville Jaguars owner Shahid Khan to hire me to run the team’s drafts. (I’d shoot for my hometown Patriots, but Bill Belichick is too smart to let me in the building). Usually I write about the draft, but this year I want to do a Callin on the subject, which has evolved. Please join me at 4:30 p.m. today if you want to talk about my private sickness:
I was listening to Bill Polian, the former GM and architect of the great Peyton Manning era Colts, and he had a fascinating breakdown of draft success. He said 70% of all starters, regardless of team, were drafted in rounds 1-3. After that, the highest % of starters in the remaining 30% came into the league as undrafted free agents. He said a big problem for succesful franchises like the Colts or Patriots, was that agents would not send their UFAs to work out for these teams b/c they realized their clients had a smaller chance of catching on to well crafted/solid rosters.
I wonder if NFL franchises do a rigorous post-facto analysis of previous 2-5 years to assess value? What did we get right/wrong? Are the eval variables we employ good predictors of expected outcome? If not, why? Since owners are not subject to turnover like coaches/management it would seem to be a useful exercise. I'd love to see a 'Hard Knocks' type of series that provides an unfettered look into the year-long process of player eval and decision making up to the draft...especially the Pats since they seem to value players contributions uniquely
I suspect the smart ones do. My team, the Bengals, had to completely overhaul their OL analysis in the aftermath of a string of high level draft busts nearly got Joe Burrow killed. They overhauled the OL in FA, and actually got great value in trading one of the aforementioned busts Billy Price, for a stellar DT BJ Hill. That said, with the FAs-2 Pro Bowl caliber- and a new OL coach-last season was his first-in place, the team is re-evaluating their OL development.
A past Bengal DB coach - Kevin Coyle - was among my first HS football coaches at Frosh camp...dating myself here. We went to same HS. I believe he had a rough go later in Miami as DC
Matt, I remember reading one of your NFL draft decoded pieces on Rolling Stone right before the 2012 draft.
Well, you must have had a disciple among the Steeler’s top brass, as they took the weed guy (Mike Adams, OT, 2nd Rd), the short but insanely fast guy (Chris Rainey, RB, 5th Rd), and even the specific giant Samoan you had called out in your article (Alemeda Ta’amu, DT, 4th Rd).
And I hate to say it, but none of those picks worked out! But fortunately for us, most of the other things you write about tend to be spot on.
As a Buckeye fan, I have to shake my head at Mike Adams. He might have been one of the 2 or 3 most physically talented players at tOSU ever, and made it to the NFL-as a 2nd rounder-on shear physical dominance-he was a well known screwup-he was suspended for most of junior year, but his natural gifts outran his idiocy-which is an ultra rare occurrence at the highest levels of sport.
I've wondered about the role of "super agents" and how much of an influence they have. I thought about Patrick Mahomes and he just signed a $100million deal, but wants to re-negotiate. It's great that he has leverage to do that, but the 99% in the league don't have that.
I'm often watching NFL wondering where in the heck some of their players were in college. Two specific ones I finally looked up watching last year were Cooper Kupp and Tyreek Hill. Kupp came out of Nowhere U. Division II, and Tyreek bounced down from OKC to Division II because some kind of off-campus problems. Each complete difference-makers at the highest level. Weird way things work out sometimes.
I would love it. Conventional wisdom says you don't draft a two-down player in the first. I think Davis not only solves their run-defense problems but eventually becomes a pocket-collapser on passing downs. Also as bad as they've been with wideouts, the Pats have had great luck with guys in the 350+ weight range: Ted Washington, Vince, Keith Traylor, Marcus Cannon, even Trent Brown...
This piece is navel gazing at its worse with all else going on. I am getting to be sorry I took a year subscription to your letters. Suggestions for comment: Jacques Baud's letter on Ukraine or the current administration's $33 billion? Enough said
You want to quit because of ONE DAY he spends on something he loves along with countless others on his subscription list? You don't see the value in anything else he writes about? His stuff on Robin DiAngelo alone is worth the price of admission.
Hey, have to have other interests outside of politics!! Most interesting for myself is to look back on past NFL drafts and 2-3-4 years later see where those players are now or even if still in the league unless career-ending injuries were the issue.
I know that's that's what analysts say, but they aren't a GM with a job on the line. The amount of hype over the "top" players has to play on them a bit...
I'm not the mock expert...just a web developer. But through osmosis I've heard something along those lines. Walt thinks the Eagles may trade up as the Ravens may want the same guy. But nothing more exciting than that trade wise. He graded the Eagles favorably for basically punting on this draft class which matches your assessment.
I agree. But I wrote to and complained to the NFL and my franchise. I asked them to justify the inconsistencies and basically disrespect of fans' values and traditions. Same with their covid policy...Selective and not consistent. If your a consumer of a product or service at least let them know you do not agree.
Matt, if you can get the Steelers to draft a corner and get Baker Mayfield without giving up much, I'd appreciate it. Good luck with the Jags - they can use your help.
Nah. Gotta keep Maker Bayfield away from Stillerz. The fans would boo him out of Heinz on his first interception. Likely on about his 10th snap. Maybe before. Then he’ll grab his crotch and shake it at the crowd. On second thought, that may be more entertaining in 2022 than anything the team puts on the field.
I have a copy of “They Call Me Assassin” on mine! Tatum was a hard, hard man, on and off the field. My dad lived next door to him in Stradley Hall at tOSU and occasionally helped him with his freshman English, and said whenever Tatum went out on the weekends, he would tuck a little .25 pistol in his boot-and then head straight to the roughest bars on the East Side to challenge any and all comers.
Go Pack!
1/3 of all NFL rosters are non-drafted Free Agents...sometimes it's more interesting to look for the undervalued and underappreciated.
I was listening to Bill Polian, the former GM and architect of the great Peyton Manning era Colts, and he had a fascinating breakdown of draft success. He said 70% of all starters, regardless of team, were drafted in rounds 1-3. After that, the highest % of starters in the remaining 30% came into the league as undrafted free agents. He said a big problem for succesful franchises like the Colts or Patriots, was that agents would not send their UFAs to work out for these teams b/c they realized their clients had a smaller chance of catching on to well crafted/solid rosters.
I wonder if NFL franchises do a rigorous post-facto analysis of previous 2-5 years to assess value? What did we get right/wrong? Are the eval variables we employ good predictors of expected outcome? If not, why? Since owners are not subject to turnover like coaches/management it would seem to be a useful exercise. I'd love to see a 'Hard Knocks' type of series that provides an unfettered look into the year-long process of player eval and decision making up to the draft...especially the Pats since they seem to value players contributions uniquely
I suspect the smart ones do. My team, the Bengals, had to completely overhaul their OL analysis in the aftermath of a string of high level draft busts nearly got Joe Burrow killed. They overhauled the OL in FA, and actually got great value in trading one of the aforementioned busts Billy Price, for a stellar DT BJ Hill. That said, with the FAs-2 Pro Bowl caliber- and a new OL coach-last season was his first-in place, the team is re-evaluating their OL development.
A past Bengal DB coach - Kevin Coyle - was among my first HS football coaches at Frosh camp...dating myself here. We went to same HS. I believe he had a rough go later in Miami as DC
Miami (Oh) calls itself “the cradle of coaches”, and now they get to add Sean McVey, the Rams wunderkind HC to the list, he played WR there.
In this, case Coyle was from NY. He had a long road to the pro level.
Praying DT Jordan Davis falls to the Steelers at pick 20!!
Stay away from Thibodeaux and Stingley, Giants…
Oops!
Yeah. We already have guys who see their football careers as part time.
Draft the weed guy, you say? I agree, but only for non QBs.
We’re sitting here waiting for more draft talk. Where are you????
Prostitutes are pleased the NFL draft is in Vegas.
Fuck New Yorrrrrrk!
Matt, I remember reading one of your NFL draft decoded pieces on Rolling Stone right before the 2012 draft.
Well, you must have had a disciple among the Steeler’s top brass, as they took the weed guy (Mike Adams, OT, 2nd Rd), the short but insanely fast guy (Chris Rainey, RB, 5th Rd), and even the specific giant Samoan you had called out in your article (Alemeda Ta’amu, DT, 4th Rd).
And I hate to say it, but none of those picks worked out! But fortunately for us, most of the other things you write about tend to be spot on.
(dead link? Article appears to be gone: https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/blogs/taibblog/the-nfl-draft-decoded-part-ii-20120426)
As a Buckeye fan, I have to shake my head at Mike Adams. He might have been one of the 2 or 3 most physically talented players at tOSU ever, and made it to the NFL-as a 2nd rounder-on shear physical dominance-he was a well known screwup-he was suspended for most of junior year, but his natural gifts outran his idiocy-which is an ultra rare occurrence at the highest levels of sport.
Thanks for the insight! At the time, I was excited for my team to get a “1st round talent in the 2nd round”. Whoops.
It's great to know that I'm not the only Revolutionary who has a strange and powerful NFL Football addiction... WHO DEY ALL DAY (Guess who's my team?)
Picking at 31 is still messing with my head!!! Joe Brrrr!!!!
I've wondered about the role of "super agents" and how much of an influence they have. I thought about Patrick Mahomes and he just signed a $100million deal, but wants to re-negotiate. It's great that he has leverage to do that, but the 99% in the league don't have that.
Who cares in the first place. Add in all the Ukraine war propaganda, and I’d rather a root canal.
So, Matt, what do you think about the value of the Patriots 1st round pick……..
I'm often watching NFL wondering where in the heck some of their players were in college. Two specific ones I finally looked up watching last year were Cooper Kupp and Tyreek Hill. Kupp came out of Nowhere U. Division II, and Tyreek bounced down from OKC to Division II because some kind of off-campus problems. Each complete difference-makers at the highest level. Weird way things work out sometimes.
Broncos fan who lives in Seattle! We took their quarterback... What do the Seahawks do???
Lions got Hutchison. Who knows. Maybe he'll change the water on the minnies as we say.
The NY Giants.... smh...
Pays to lose Jets 2 pix 1st round yay
I'm thinking with new F/0 this year maybe Da Bears won't package multiple picks to move up 4 slots for someone they could have taken later. Maybe.
Thoughts on Jordan Davis to the Pats at 21?
I would love it. Conventional wisdom says you don't draft a two-down player in the first. I think Davis not only solves their run-defense problems but eventually becomes a pocket-collapser on passing downs. Also as bad as they've been with wideouts, the Pats have had great luck with guys in the 350+ weight range: Ted Washington, Vince, Keith Traylor, Marcus Cannon, even Trent Brown...
That said I doubt he falls that far. And I mostly hope they trade out of the 1st.
Trading out of the 1st is classic Belichick
Looks like EDGE and Wide Receivers will dominate the first round. Aidan Hutchinson will be a Beast for whatever team gets him... GO BLUE!!
I only wish bad on field things for scUM-but I’d love to see the Bengals grab Dax Hill!
You have Three stud WRs in this draft if you include Jameson Williams. I'd like at least one for my Ravens.
Honestly Mr. Taibbi
This piece is navel gazing at its worse with all else going on. I am getting to be sorry I took a year subscription to your letters. Suggestions for comment: Jacques Baud's letter on Ukraine or the current administration's $33 billion? Enough said
You want to quit because of ONE DAY he spends on something he loves along with countless others on his subscription list? You don't see the value in anything else he writes about? His stuff on Robin DiAngelo alone is worth the price of admission.
Hey, have to have other interests outside of politics!! Most interesting for myself is to look back on past NFL drafts and 2-3-4 years later see where those players are now or even if still in the league unless career-ending injuries were the issue.
No! This is right up my alley. But sadly, I have work at that time and cannot pull away for the live Callin.
Whom will the Mongolian Rodman deign to be best value? We await the Oracle…
I work for a site where the draft is its primary focus. Its go time. Not sure I have time for the callin but will try to tune in.
Are most of the top ten team trying to trade down? Seems that way to me. I think it’s a good deep draft without a lot of generational players.
I know that's that's what analysts say, but they aren't a GM with a job on the line. The amount of hype over the "top" players has to play on them a bit...
We have two writers...the one does a decent job of talking to staff of the teams and has some sources. https://walterfootball.com/nflhotpress/article/2022-NFL-Draft-Week-Rumors-Thursday
I'm not the mock expert...just a web developer. But through osmosis I've heard something along those lines. Walt thinks the Eagles may trade up as the Ravens may want the same guy. But nothing more exciting than that trade wise. He graded the Eagles favorably for basically punting on this draft class which matches your assessment.
Sounds like a hoot, unfortunately have gotten away from all that after all the woke hypocrisy and nonsense pervaded the NFL. But I get it. Have fun.
I agree. But I wrote to and complained to the NFL and my franchise. I asked them to justify the inconsistencies and basically disrespect of fans' values and traditions. Same with their covid policy...Selective and not consistent. If your a consumer of a product or service at least let them know you do not agree.
The NFL is nonsense. And I still love it.
still iPhones only? would love to join the call but only if I can share my insights, which are, brilliant and all about KC.
Matt, if you can get the Steelers to draft a corner and get Baker Mayfield without giving up much, I'd appreciate it. Good luck with the Jags - they can use your help.
Nah. Gotta keep Maker Bayfield away from Stillerz. The fans would boo him out of Heinz on his first interception. Likely on about his 10th snap. Maybe before. Then he’ll grab his crotch and shake it at the crowd. On second thought, that may be more entertaining in 2022 than anything the team puts on the field.
Not my thing but I did send it to one of my sons who is into the draft.
I hope the Pats get Stingley from LSU!!!!!
I still have a copy of "Darryl Stingley: Happy to be Alive" on my bookshelf.
I have a copy of “They Call Me Assassin” on mine! Tatum was a hard, hard man, on and off the field. My dad lived next door to him in Stradley Hall at tOSU and occasionally helped him with his freshman English, and said whenever Tatum went out on the weekends, he would tuck a little .25 pistol in his boot-and then head straight to the roughest bars on the East Side to challenge any and all comers.
Read that, too!! Along with 'Stop Action', Dick Butkus and 'Instant Replay' Jerry Kramer
God, I remember seeing the game where Darryl was injured. Another (aged) Revolutionary who has a football addiction - both college and pro.