Our Sixty Days of Nuclear Chicken Have Begun

Expectation of peace talks after Donald Trump's inauguration is pushing all sides of the Ukraine war to escalate, with British and American missiles adding fresh risk

Karachev, in the Bryansk region

In an irony so miserable it must be true, widespread belief that peace talks are coming after Donald Trump’s inauguration is pushing Russia and the U.S. into a game of nuclear chicken, leaving us with “60 days to decide on World War,” as one Russian newspaper put it this week.

While the story may not be getting Cuban Missile Crisis treatment here, Joe Biden’s decision to green-light launches of U.S.-made ATACMS missiles into Russia has that country’s media in freakout mode. Rhetoric was hotter than ever today, the 1000th day of the war, after at least six ATACMS were fired into Russian territory.

“Russia and the West have reached the point of no return,” declared Moskovsky Komsomolets.

“Halfway to Armageddon,” read a RuNews24 headline.

“The most dangerous moment of escalation in the history of this war, and maybe the most dangerous moment in European history since 1945,” historian Alexander Friedman told EuroRadio.

“World War III, closer still?” asked Irina Romaliskaya, at the top of Evening newscast.

“The last ‘red line,’” grumbled Andrei Krasov, First Secretary of the Duma’s Defense Committee.

A U.S. official told Reuters Russians intercepted two out of eight ATACMS, with the remainder landing near Karachev, a town in the Bryansk region about 110 kilometers from the Ukrainian border. The Russian defense ministry says it shot down five of six missiles. Either way, the move triggered another change of nuclear doctrine by Vladimir Putin, allowing for nuclear response to any attack on the “territorial wholeness” of Russia. The previous standard required a threat to the “very existence” of the Russian state.

Most Americans likely view the ATACMS strike as just another self-defense response by a Ukrainian army that’s been forced to rely on Western resources and weapons since Russia’s invasion two years ago, and not substantively different from the 34 drones sent to strike Moscow just over a week ago. The Russian government disagrees, but do they disagree enough to nuke someone?